“Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” Did Finally Reach $1 Billion, But Has Fallen Behind “Rogue One” Domestically

On Jan 15, 2020, “#StarWars IX: #TheRiseOfSkywalker” did finally reach $1 billion in gross box office revenue worldwide. This occurred 26 days after the film opened in theaters, which was 9 days longer than it took “Star Wars VIII: #TheLastJedi” and 14 days longer than “Star Wars VII: #TheForceAwakens”.

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 5.37.36 PM

But, on that exact same day “The Rise of Skywalker” reached $1 billion worldwide, the film’s domestic cumulative gross box office revenue also slid below the cumulative domestic gross box office earnings that “#RogueOne: A Star Wars Story” had earned in 2016 after the same number of days in theaters. And, since then, “The Rise of Skywalker” has remained below “Rogue One” in terms of cumulative domestic gross box office.

Screen Shot 2020-01-20 at 5.20.59 PM

Thus, the earnings for “The Rise of Skywalker” continue to drop at a rate faster than what “Rogue One” experienced in 2016, and we suspected that the film may not earn as much as “Rogue One” after viewing last week’s box office numbers when “The Rise of Skywalker” was barely doing better than “Rogue One”.

References

RIP Syd Mead

#RIP: visionary conceptual futurist artist Syd Mead passed away yesterday at the age of 86. He worked in the art departments for a number of #SciFi & #fantasy films, including “#StarTrek: #TheMotionPicture”, #BladeRunner, #Tron, #2010, #Aliens, #Timecop, #MissionToMars, #Elysium, #Tomorrowland, #BladeRunner2049, & more.

Our condolences to his family, friends and fans. May he rest in peace.

Syd Mead

Syd Mead (1933 – 2019)

References

2019 Sci-Fi & Fantasy Artist Deaths

We come again to that time of year when we honor and remember those #SciFi & #Fantasy artists that the world has lost over the past year. 2019 hasn’t been an easy year, as we lost 32 artists, which was more than 2018. While these artists may be gone, their legacies will never be forgotten for generations to come.

Most of the sci-fi & fantasy franchises impacted by these deaths are listed below.

  • A Christmas Carol / Scrooge
  • Airwolf
  • Alf
  • Babylon 5
  • Battle Beyond the Stars
  • Beastmaster
  • Big Fish
  • Bionic Woman
  • The Black Hole
  • Blade Runner
  • Buck Rogers in the 25th Century
  • Buffy the Vampire Slayer
  • Captain Scarlet and the Mysterons
  • Charmed
  • Corpse Bride
  • D.C. Comics (Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman)
  • Damnation Alley
  • Dark Shadows
  • Delivering Milo
  • Doctor Who
  • Dudes & Dragons
  • Dune
  • Earth 2
  • Earth Final Conflict
  • Excalibur
  • Faerie Tale Theatre
  • Fantasy Island
  • The Fifth Element
  • I Dream of Jeannie
  • Joe 90
  • Knight Rider
  • Krull
  • Logan’s Run
  • Lost in Space
  • Marvel Comics (Incredible Hulk)
  • Men in Black
  • Millennium
  • My Favorite Martian
  • Night Man
  • The People that Time Forgot
  • Planet of the Apes
  • Power Rangers
  • Quantum Leap
  • RoboCop
  • Singularity
  • Six Million Dollar Man
  • Sliders
  • Smallville
  • Space 1999
  • Star Trek
  • Star Wars
  • Stargate SG1
  • THX 1138
  • Time Bandits
  • Thunderbirds
  • True Blood
  • UFO (Gerry Anderson’s)
  • Viper
  • Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea
  • Warlords of the Deep
  • Willy Wonka
  • The X-Files

Our condolences to all of the families, friends & fans of the following artists that we lost in 2019.

January

Actor & director James Frawley died at the age of 82 on January 25, 2019. He directed episodes of #Smallville, #Earth2 & #FaerieTaleTheatre. He also played Mr. Frisby in #MyFavoriteMartian, Manolo / Semenev / Smiling Jack in #VoyageToTheBottomOfTheSea, Pvt. Renalto in #TheOuterLimits; & more.

James Frawley

James Frawley (1936-2019)

February

British actor Clive Swift died at the age of 82 on Feb. 1, 2019. He played Jobel / Mr. Cooper in #DoctorWho, Ector in #Excalibur, Tony Doran in #1990, Snug in #AMidsummersNightDream, & much more, including Richard Bucket in the long-running Brit-com #KeepingUpAppearances.

Clive Swift

Clive Swift (1936-2019)

Actor Albert Finney died at the age of 82 on Feb. 8, 2019. He played Ebenezer Scrooge in #Scrooge, Elmore Dahl in #DeliveringMilo, Ed Bloom in #BigFish, Finis Everglot (voice) in #CorpseBride, & much more.

Albert Finney (1936-2019)

Albert Finney (1936-2019)

Actor Jan-Michael Vincent died at the age of 74 on Feb. 10, 2019. He played Stringfellow Hawke in #Airwolf, Tanner in #DamnationAlley, & much more, including playing Steve McKenna in the crime-thriller #TheMechanic with Charles Bronson among his many credits.

Jan-Michael Vincent

Jan-Michael Vincent (1945-2019)

Actor Carmen Argenziano died at the age of 75 on Feb. 11, 2019. He played Gen. Jacob Carter / Selmak in #StargateSG1, Urza Jaddo in #Babylon5, Damien Walsh in #Singularity, Mr. Corleone in #NightMan, King Kusari in #BionicWoman, & much more.

Carmen Argenziano

Carmen Argenziano (1943-2019)

Actor Morgan Woodward died at the age of 93 on Feb. 24, 2019. He played Capt. Tracy / Dr. Simon van Gelder in #StarTrek #TOS, Cayman in #BattleBeyondTheStars, Old Harry Cokely in #TheXFiles, Iron Lung Man in #Millennium, Sheriff Winston in #KnightRider, Uncle Jack / Nick Hall / Tribal Elder / Marshall Victor Grennan in #FantasyIsland, Martin in #PlanetOfTheApes (TV series), Morgan in #LogansRun (TV series), Carlton Tanner in #ProjectUFO, Ben Madrid in #TheIncredibleHulk, & much more.

Morgan Woodward

Morgan Woodward (1925-2019)

March

Actress Katherine Helmond died at the age of 89 on March 2, 2019. She played Mrs. Ogre in #TimeBandits, Caroline Bellefleur in #TrueBlood, Dr. Harkens in #BionicWoman, Laura Walters in #FantasyIsland, & much more, including two well known TV sitcom roles: Jessica Tate in #Soap, and Lois Whelan in #EverybodyLovesRaymond.

Katherine Helmond

Katherine Helmond (1929-2019)

Actor Luke Perry died at the untimely age of 52 on March 4, 2019. He played Billy in #TheFifthElement, Pike in #BuffyTheVampireSlayer, Lorash in #DudesAndDragons, & much more, including his very long run of playing Dylan McCay / Billy McCoy / Peter Brinkley in romance-drama “Beverly Hills, 90210”.

Luke Perry

Luke Perry (1966-2019)

Actor Shane Rimmer has died at the age of 89 on March 29, 2019. Born May 28, 1929, Shane Rimmer voiced the character of Scott Tracy in #Thunderbirds. He also played an InCom Engineer in “#StarWars IV: #ANewHope”, Hogan in #ThePeopleThatTimeForgot, Capt. Daniels in #WarlordsOfTheDeep, Seth Harper in #DoctorWho, an Eagle Pilot / Maintenance Section Voice / James Kelly / Voice of Bannion in #Space1999, a CIA agent / Lt. Bill Johnson / an alien / Seagull X-Ray co-pilot in Gerry Anderson’s #UFO, Older Gotham Water Board Technician in #BatmanBegins, Colonel in #AlienAutopsy, Board Member 1 in #DarkShadows, E. J. Saggs in #SpaceTruckers, Naval Transport Commander in #Superman (1978), Controller #2 in #SupermanII, state policeman in #SupermanIII, voiced several characters in #CaptainScarletAndTheMysterons, voiced several characters in #Joe90, played Rusty / team executive in #Rollerball (1975), played Redneck (Melvin) in #MoronsFromOuterSpace, & much more, including playing Cmdr. Carter in the James Bond movie #TheSpyWhoLovedMe.

Shane Rimmer

Shane Rimmer (1929-2019)

April

#SciFi author Vonda N. McIntyre died on April 1, 2019, at the age of 70. Her works include the following sci-fi novels:

  • “The Exile Waiting” (1975)
  • “Dreamsnake” (1978)
  • “Superluminal” (1983)
  • “The Bride” (1985)
  • “Barbary” (1986)
  • “The Moon and the Sun” (1997)

She also wrote the “Starfarers” series of novels:

  • “Starfarers” (1989)
  • “Transition” (1991)
  • “Metaphase” (1992)
  • “Nautilus” (1994)

She wrote the novelizations for the several #StarTrek movies:

  • “Star Trek II: The Wrath of Kahn” (1982)
  • “Star Trek III: The Search for Spock” (1984)
  • “Star Trek IV: The Voyage Home” (1986)

She also wrote the #StarWars novel “The Crystal Star” (1994). “Fireflood and Other Stories” (1979) is a collection of her short stories.

She won the Nebula Award & was nominated for the Hugo Award for her 1974 short story “Of Mist, Grass and Sand”. She won the Hugo Award & Nebula Award both for Best Novel for “Dreamscape” in 1979. Robert A. Heinlein in part dedicated his novel “Friday” to Vonda in 1982. She won the Nebula Award for her novel “The Moon and the Sun” in 1998.

Vonda N. McIntyr

Vonda N. McIntyr (1948-2019)

Actor Peter Mayhew died at the age of 74 on April 30, 2019. He played the iconic #StarWars character #Chewbacca in the films #ANewHope (Ep. IV, 1977), #TheEmpireStrikesBack (Ep V, 1980), #ReturnOfTheJedi (Ep. VI, 1983) & #RevengeOfTheSith (Ep. III, 2005). He also appeared in the #HolidaySpecial (1978) and voiced Chewbacca in the film #TheForceAwakens (Ep. VII, 2015), as well as voicing Chewbacca in 1 episode of #TheCloneWars. He also appeared as the Minoton in #SinbadAndTheEyeOfTheTiger (1977).

Peter Mayhew

Peter Mayhew (1944-2019)

May

Actor Pua Magasiva died at the age of 38 on May 11, 2019. He played Shane Clarke / Red Wind Ranger in “#PowerRangers Ninja Storm” & “Power Rangers #DinoThunder”; & more.

Pua Magasiva

Pua Magasiva (1980 – 2019)

June

Actress Stephanie Niznik passed away at the age of 52 on June 23, 2019. She played Lt. Peril in “#StarTrek IX: #Insurrection”, the Wraith in #Enterprise; Dr. Evelyn Ariza in #Lost; Lena Weisinger in #Viper; Debra Carbol in #Sliders; & much more, including playing Nina Feeney in 82 episodes of the drama TV series #Everwood.

Stephanie Niznik

Stephanie Niznik (1967-2019)

Actor Max Wright died at the age of 75 on June 26, 2019. Born in 1943, he played the main character Willie Tanner in the long-running TV sitcom #Alf. He also played Robin Starveling in #AMidsummersNightDream (1999), Berger in #TheShadow, Doc Kinman in #QuantumLeap, Prince Heinrick in #FaerieTaleTheatre, Dick Stetmeyer in #MisfitsOfScience, & more.

Max Wright

Max Wright (1943-2019)

July

Actor Rip Torn passed away on July 9, 2019 at the age of 88. He played Zed in #MenInBlack I & II, large headed alien at funeral in “Men in Black III”; Larraby in #Zoom; Maax in #Beastmaster; Bob Diamond in #DefendingYourLife; Bud Kruger in “#Airplane II: The Sequel”; Nathan Bryce in #TheManWhoFellToEarth; the CEO in “#Robocop 3”; & much more.

Rip Torn

Rip Torn (1931-2019)

Actor Freddie Jones died at the age of 91 on July 9, 2019. He played Thufir Hawat in #Dune, Ynyr in #Krull, Dr. Charles Logan in #Space1999, & more, including playing Sandy Thomas in the long-running British TV series #Emmerdale from 2005 to 2018 (for a total of 632 episodes). He also appeared in the drama #TheElephantMan (which received 8 Oscar nominations) and the action-thriller #Firefox.

Freddie Jones

Freddie Jones (1927-2019)

Actress Diane Nickerson passed away at the age of 62 on July 11, 2019. She played Violet Beauregarde in #WillyWonkaAndTheChocolateFactory, Amy Collins in #DarkShadows (71 episodes), & more, including playing Pamela Harris in an episode of #TheBradyBunch and as Allison in the educational comedy TV show #TheElectricCompany (130 episodes).

Denise Nickerson

Denise Nickerson (1957-2019)

Actor David Hedison has died at the age of 92 on July 18, 2019. He played Capt. Lee B. Crane in #VoyageToTheBottomOfTheSea, Ed Malone in #TheLostWorld, Andre Delambre in #TheFly (1958), Evan Robly in #WonderWoman (TV series), Frederick Flanagan in #ProjectUFO, Daniel Garman / Phillip Camden / Captain John Day / David Tabori / Karl Dixon / Claude Duncan / Carlyle Cranston in #FantasyIsland, Theodore Cooper in #KnightRider, & much more, including playing Felix Leiter in 2 James Bond films: #LiveAndLetDie & #LicenseToKill.

David Hedison

David Hedison (1927-2019)

Actor Rutger Hauer died at the age of 75 on July 19, 2019. He played Roy Batty in #BladeRunner, President of the World State Federation in #ValerianAndTheCityOfAThousandPlanets, Niall Brigant in #TrueBlood, Earle in #BatmanBegins, Morgan Edge in #Smallville, King Vortigern in #Merlin, Bog in #Lexx, Lothos in #BuffyTheVampireSlayer, Navarre in #Ladyhawke, & more.

Rutger Hauer

Rutger Hauer (1944-2019)

Actor Jeremy Kemp died at the age of 84 on July 19, 2019. He played Robert Picard (Jean-Luc’s older brother) in one of the most memorable & powerful episodes of #StarTrek #TNG, Dr. Ernst Linden in #Space1999, Hissah Zul in #Conan (TV series), & more, including playing PC Bob Steele / vagrant in the British police drama TV show “Z Cars”.

Jeremy Kemp

Jeremy Kemp (1935-2019)

August

Actress Barbara March (a.k.a., Barbara Scarfe), died on Aug. 11, 2019, at the age of 65. She played Lursa of the House of Duras in #StarTrek #TNG, #DS9, & “Star Trek VII: #Generations”; & more, including work on stage. She was also a writer.

Barbara March (a.k.a., Barbara Scarfe)

Barbara March (a.k.a., Barbara Scarfe; 1953-2019)

September

Actor Robert Axelrod has died at the age of 70 on Sept. 7, 2019. He voiced Lord Zedd in “#MightyMorphinPowerRangers: The Movie”; Lord Zedd / Finster “Might Morphin #PowerRangers” (TV series), “Power Rangers #Zeo”, “Power Rangers in Space”; Mutantrum in “Power Rangers #LostGalaxy”; Thin Man in “Power Rangers #TimeForce”; played Egrid in #StarTrek #Voyager; racially confused veteran in #TheRevenant; Shimazaki (voice) in #Akira; Frank in #AmazingStories; & more, including a lot more voice work.

Robert Axelrod (1949-2019)

Robert Axelrod (1949-2019)

Actor Aron Eisenberg at the age of 50 on Sept. 21, 2019. Born on January 6, 1969, he played Nog & a newspaper vendor in “#StarTrek #DS9”, Kar in #Voyager; Aaron in #TalesFromTheCrypt; & more.

Aron Eisenberg

Aron Eisenberg (1969-2019)

Actor Sid Haig has died at the age of 80 on Sept. 21, 2019. Born on July 14, 1939, he was best known for his work in horror, but he did perform in several #SciFi & #Fantasy works, including playing the First Lawgiver in #StarTrek #TOS (ep. #TheReturnOfTheArchons), Royal Apothecary in #Batman (1966 TV series), guard / Bruce / Turk in #GetSmart, NCH in #THX1138, Dragos in #JasonOfStarCommand, Pratt / Spirot in #BuckRogersInThe25thCentury, Otto / Harlen / Hakeem in #FantasyIsland, 1st gang member in #Automan, Swarthy Man in #MisfitsOfScience, 3rd passenger in #TheSixMillionDollarMan, the genie in #ElectraWomanAndDynaGirl, & more, including an appearance in the James Bond film #DiamondsAreForever. He also played Texas in the nighttime soap opera #MaryHartmanMaryHartman, as well as Captain Spaulding in the horror flick #HouseOf1000Corpses.

Sid Haig

Sig Haig (1939 – 2019)

Actor Jack Donner died on Sept. 21, 2019 at the age of 90. He played Romulan Subcommander Tal in #StarTrek #TOS, a Vulcan priest in #Enterprise; Commander Kinwon in “#PowerRangers in Space”; Joe in #IDreamOfJeannie; the courier in #GetSmart; master of ceremonies in #MyFavoriteMartian; man in hospital room in #GhostWhisperer; in #IDreamOfJeannie, Judge Renault in #Charmed; Morris in #TheInvisible; Clayton Wheeler in #Roswell; cleric #1 in #BuffyTheVampireSlayer (TV series); blind man in #Conan (TV series); & more.

Jack Donner

Jack Donner (1928-2019)

October

Actress & singer Diahann Carroll died at the age of 84 on Oct. 4, 2019. She played the hologram Mermeia in “The #StarWars #HolidaySpecial”, Grace Willis in #TouchedByAnAngel, & more.

Diahann Carroll

Diahann Carroll (1935-2019)

Actor Robert Forster has died at the age of 78 on Oct. 11, 2019. He played Capt. Dan Holland in #TheBlackHole, Arthur Petrelli in #Heroes, Robert Bold in #Automata, Frank Shepherd in #Intruders, Sheriff Frank Truman in #TwinPeaks (2017), Sergeant Volkom in #GhostsOfGirlfriendsPast, Yates in #Peacemaker, Gary Cooley in #TalesFromTheDarkside, & more.

Robert Forster

Robert Forster (1941-2019)

November

Actor Michael J. Pollard died at the age of 80 on Nov. 20, 2019. He played Jahn in “#StarTrek: #TOS”, the boy in #LostInSpace, Herman in #Scrooged, Aeolus in #TheOdyssey (1997 miniseries), & much more, including Bug Bailey in #DickTracy. His breakout role was playing C.W. Moss, the accomplice-turned-snitch, in the 1967 film #BonnieAndClyde that starred Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway. He also played Stucky in the 2003 horror film #HouseOf1000Corpses.

Michael J. Pollard

Michael J. Pollard (1939-2019)

December

Writer & story editor D.C. Fontana died at the age of 80 on Dec. 2, 2019. She was one of the key writers who worked on “#StarTrek: #TheOriginalSeries” in the 1960s, helping to bring Gene Roddenberry’s vision to life. She also worked on later “Star Trek” TV series. A full list of her episode writing & editing credits follows:

TOS:

  • “Charlie X”
  • “Tomorrow is Yesterday“
  • “The Side of Paradise“
  • “Friday’s Child“”
  • “Journey to Babel“
  • “By Any Other Name“
  • “The Ultimate Computer“
  • “The Enterprise Incident“
  • “That Which Survives“
  • “The Way to Eden”

TAS:

  • “Yesteryear”

TNG:

  • “Encounter at Farpoint”
  • “The Naked Now”
  • “Lonely Among Us”
  • “Too Short a Season”
  • “Heart of Glory”

DS9:

  • “Dax”

She also wrote 3 episodes of #Babylon5; 2 episodes of #TheSixMillionDollarMan; 1 episode of #LandOfTheLost; 3 episodes of #LogansRun (TV series); 1 episode of #BuckRogersInThe25thCentury; 1 episode of #WarOfTheWorlds (TV series); 1 episode of #EarthFinalConflict; & much more.

D.C. Fontana

D.C. Fontana (1939 – 2019)

Actor Robert Walker, Jr. passed away at the age of 79 on Dec. 5, 2019. He played Charlie Evans in “#StarTrek: #TOS”, Cloche / Bell in #TheSixMillionDollarMan, Billy the Kid (William H. Bonney) in #TheTimeTunnel, & more.

Robert Walker, Jr.

Robert Walker, Jr. (1940-2019)

Actor René Auberjonois died at the age of 79 on Dec. 8, 2019. He played Col. West in “#StarTrek VI: #TheUndiscoveredCountry”, Odo / Douglas Pabst / Curzon Dax in #DS9, Ezral in #Enterprise; Dr. Burton in #BatmanForever; Dlavan in #TheOuterLimits; Hugo Miller in #Warehouse13; Alar in #StargateSG1; Artemus Bradford in #InspectorGadget (1999 movie); King Boris / King Ulrich in #FaerieTaleTheatre; Kimbal in #WonderWoman (TV series); Havergal in #ManFromAtlantis; Pierre Lambert in #TheBionicWoman; Bagley in #KingKing (1976); William Sharstead in #NightGallery; & much more, including voice work for many animated series. (His 1st major role was playing Father Mulcahy in the 1970 movie #MASH. He also played Paul Lewiston in the comedic crime-drama #BostonLegal alongside William Shatner.)

René Auberjonois

René Auberjonois (1940-2019)

Visionary conceptual futurist artist Syd Mead passed away on Dec. 30, 2019 at the age of 86. He worked in the art departments for a number of #SciFi & #fantasy films, including “#StarTrek: #TheMotionPicture”, #BladeRunner, #Tron, #2010, #Aliens, #Timecop, #MissionToMars, #Elysium, #Tomorrowland, #BladeRunner2049, & more.

Syd Mead

Syd Mead (1933 – 2019)

References

2nd Weekend Box Office for “Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” Down 59% Domestically

In its 2nd weekend, “#StarWars IX: #TheRiseOfSkywalker” earned $72 million domestic box office receipts. This is a decline of $105 million, which is 59.4% below what it earned during its opening weekend of $177.4 million (revised from the earlier reported $175.5 million domestic opening weekend). While this decline isn’t as severe as the whopping $149 million decline (67% decline) that “Star Wars VIII: #TheLastJedi” experienced between its 2nd and opening weekends in 2017, the $72 million that “The Rise of Skywalker” earned during its second weekend is only $1 million more than the $71 million earned by “The Last Jedi” during its 2nd weekend.

Currently, the 10-day cumulative domestic box office total for “The Rise of Skywalker” is $361.8 million, which is slightly lower than the 10-day cumulative domestic box office total of $368 million that “The Last Jedi” earned in 2017.

The currently predicted total domestic box office expected is between $502 million and $612 million, which is line with our own prediction of $545.8 million domestic box office earnings that we made last week.

Outside of the U.S., “The Rise of Skywalker” earned $94 million during its 2nd weekend and has a current overseas cumulative 10-day box office total of $363 million for a total worldwide 10-day cumulative box office total of $724.8 million. The domestic/overseas split is currently 47/53%, so while the film is earning more overseas than domestically, the overall IMDb user ratings for “The Rise of Skywalker” still have a higher domestic user rating of 7.1 over the overseas user rating of 6.8.

Rey in Ep. IX

References

“The Rise of Skywalker” Debuts with $175.5 Million Domestically; Earning Less than “The Last Jedi”

#Disney’s film “#StarWars IX: #TheRiseOfSkywalker” lead the box office on its opening weekend with $175.5 million in earnings in North America. While this is the third largest December film opening of all time and the performance tops the studio’s conservative $165 million opening prediction, many (including BoxOfficeMojo) expected the film to top $200 million for the weekend. The $175.5 million in earnings is also below where expectations were only yesterday, when it appeared that the film would open anywhere from $190-195 million after Friday estimates, but earnings on Saturday were lower than expected.

The slide began following the film’s opening day, which was pretty much on par with recent “Star Wars” releases, which saw preview grosses making up 44% of the film’s opening day. However, it is the only “Star Wars” release of the five released by Disney thus far to see the Friday gross make up over 50% of the film’s total opening weekend box office earnings. This brings into question what kind of impact word of mouth will have on the film’s final gross.

A comparison of how well each of the 5 Disney “Star Wars” films has performed in opening domestic box office receipts is shown below.

Disney "Star Wars" Domestic Box Office Opening Weekends

Disney “Star Wars” Domestic Box Office Opening Weekends

Thus, for the sequel trilogy, each successive film has performed lower than the preceding film.

To estimate how well “Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” may perform and whether it may breakeven, we investigated the multiples of the previous films, as well as how well their final earnings compared with each film’s budget.

To estimate how well “The Rise of Skywalker” may do, we based estimates on performing linear regressions on the multiples and on the worldwide grosses, as well as the reported estimate for the film’s budget, which is estimated to be between $250 to $300 million. Our estimates are that the film will likely break even and make a small profit, but far less than “The Last Jedi”.

Disney "Star Wars" Box Office Multiples

Disney “Star Wars” Box Office Multiples & Estimates

References

“Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” Flops in China on Friday Debut

Box office numbers for “#StarWars IX: #TheRiseOfSkywalker” in China on opening weekend are so poor, that it has flopped. Total box office receipts for the film for both Thursday and Friday showings as of 8 p.m. local time were only $2.2 million; and ticketing agency Maoyon is predicting a total ticket sales throughout the country of only $18 million. This is significantly lower than how well previous Disney-era “Star Wars” films have performed in China:

  • In Jan. 2016, “Star Wars VII: #TheForceAwakens” opened in China with a $52.3 million weekend and achieved a lifetime score of $126 million.
  • “#RogueOne: A Star Wars Story” that released in Dec. 2016 with Chinese stars Donnie Yen and Jiang Wen in prominent roles, managed $30.6 million on opening and a lifetime $69.4 million.
  • In 2017, “Star Wars VIII: #TheLastJedi” slipped further, registering an opening weekend of $28.7 million and a lifetime cumulative of $42.6 million.
  • In 2018, “Solo: A Star Wars Story” bombed in China, earning only $10.1 million on its opening weekend.

In other words, the total expected box office for “The Rise of Skywalker” in China is less than the opening weekends for 3 of the previous “Star Wars” films that were released there, and is far less than “Solo”, which was a worldwide box office flop.

Currently, the film is only projected to earn $170-$200 million in North America, which would be significantly lower than both “The Force Awakens” and “The Last Jedi”, which had opening weekends of $247,966,675 and $220,009,584 respectively.

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References

“Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker”: Suffers from a Frustrating Lack of Imagination, but with Fan-Focused Devotion

With the ninth film in the #StarWars saga now opening in some parts of the world, professional reviews for “Star Wars IX: #TheRiseOfSkywalker” are decidedly mixed on #rottentomatoes with a metacritic score of 57% (as of the time of that this post was written), which is the second lowest metacritic score for all of the live-action “Star Wars” films. (Only the metacritic score of 53% for “Star Wars I: #ThePhantomMenace” is lower.)

The overall consensus on rottentomatoes for the film is defined as follows:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker suffers from a frustrating lack of imagination, but concludes this beloved saga with fan-focused devotion.”

"Star Wars IX" Metacritic Score from Rottentomatoes

“Star Wars IX” Metacritic Score from Rottentomatoes

To see how the fans might react to the film, we sat down and did a comparison of the rottentomatoes metacritic scores with the user scores for the live action “Star Wars” films on IMDb. The results were very interesting.

Screen Shot 2019-12-18 at 11.36.14 AM

From this values, we found that there is a correlation of 80% between the two sets of ratings, which implies that the rottentomatoes metacritic score is a good indicator of how well users are actually going to like the film. Based on this correlation. we are able to predict that the user rating for “Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” is probably going to be around 6.4 to 6.5, which isn’t good at all as it implies that the “Star Wars” trilogy of trilogies is going to end on a very forgettable note.

Now, when we first started to write this blog post, there were no ratings showing up on IMDb.com, but as of the time that we are working to complete this blog post, there are ratings appearing because theaters outside of the U.S. are opening and viewers are beginning to watch the film. So, right now, with just under 8000 votes, the rating for “Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker” on IMDb is 6.8, which is very close to the value that we have predicted. Assuming that the people going to see the film as early as possible are the hardcore “Star Wars” fans, that 6.8 rating is very telling and once more members of the general public see the film (who aren’t necessarily huge fans of the franchise), that rating may continue to go down. Only time will tell.

References